Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

46 0x4636…43d3 other 9 markets active 13h ago coverage 172d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$664 (-36%) realized −$670 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip

Net edge-80%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%1W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$204per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 172d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-79.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-73.8%	-76.3%	17%	17%	-19.1%
≤30d	6	-73.8%	-76.3%	17%	17%	-19.1%
≤90d	6	-73.8%	-76.3%	17%	17%	-19.1%
all	7	-77.6%	-79.7%	14%	14%	-51.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-79.7%	14%	-51.2%
10%	-81.6%	14%	-55.9%
15%	-83.4%	14%	-60.1%
20%	-85.0%	14%	-64.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -78% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$288 vs −$161 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.3 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage

Net worth$161

Realized−$670

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses1 / 6

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 9

History coverage172d

Avg bet$204

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	76¢	79¢	$154	$161	+$6 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$204	−$200	-98%
England leading at halftime?	Jun 17	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	−$51	-100%
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$506	+$288	+57%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27?	Dec 27	$584	−$584	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama?	BUY Yes	20¢	$51	12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	29¢	$102	13h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	76¢	$155	18h
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	63¢	$506	18h
England leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	42¢	$51	18h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$31	18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	35¢	$204	18h
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27?	BUY Yes	39¢	$229	172d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27?	BUY Yes	78¢	$345	172d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	172d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.77 · official $160.77 (match) · 15 history records