Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4632…193a crypto 1730 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$596 (-0%) realized −$596 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%1685W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,739
other 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -5.8% -14.8% 93% 0% -25.3%
≤30d 717 -2.0% -11.3% 96% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 1738 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 0% -10.9%
all 1738 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 0% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -19.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$92 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$596
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1685 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1738 / 1730
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1738 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 24 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $48 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records