Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x4631…5454 crypto 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 829d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$613 (+0%) realized +$613 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%332W / 16L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$133
14 days+$41
30 days−$884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$603
other 0% −$165
politics 0% −$30
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.7% -10.1% 97% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 128 -2.7% -11.9% 95% 2% -10.9%
≤90d 343 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 2% -9.2%
all 348 -1.1% -10.5% 95% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$606) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$120 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

829d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$613
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses332 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)348 / 348
History coverage829d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 348 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $501 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $500 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $501 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $511 −$280 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $265 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $478 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $172 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $321 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 08 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 07 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 07 $158 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 06 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 06 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 06 $500 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $501 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $126 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $511 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $265 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $478 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 910 history records