Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
46 0x4631…09c8 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$757 (+14%) realized +$758 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%38W / 25L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$757
14 days+$403
30 days+$623
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$540
other 19% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +38.8% +25.6% 78% 70% +17.6%
≤30d 41 +20.6% +9.1% 61% 56% +6.3%
≤90d 42 +17.7% +6.5% 60% 55% +5.1%
all 63 +12.4% +1.7% 60% 54% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 54% +2.9%
10% -8.0% 48% -6.9%
15% -16.9% 43% -15.9%
20% -25.1% 40% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$59 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$758
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses38 / 25
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage248d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$47 +93%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 +$53 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $132 −$130 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$15 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $81 −$80 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $81 +$61 +75%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$28 +56%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$17 +17%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $21 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +92%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$61 +61%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 +$25 +122%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +179%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$68 +34%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $411 +$32 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$180 -89%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $306 +$478 +156%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $37 −$36 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $60 −$59 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $213 −$153 -72%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $19 −$18 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $82 −$80 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $82 −$8 -10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $202 −$10 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 +$65 +128%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $102 +$54 +53%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $63 −$45 -72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $35 +$28 +81%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $68 +$208 +306%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Apr 29 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Dec 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Dec 01 $10 +$2 +18%
Lakers vs. Thunder Nov 13 $100 +$7 +7%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 10 $69 +$41 +59%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $90 +$62 +69%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $87 −$82 -94%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 06 $13 +$33 +252%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $81 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $51 12h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $31 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 33h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $81 34h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $81 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $56 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $86 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 81¢ $79 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 42h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 42h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 42h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 93¢ $118 42h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 43h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $101 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $81 43h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 52¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $1 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $162 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.35 · official $79.35 (match) · 172 history records