Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x462f…d5b8 other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate24%14W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 79% −$14
politics 11% −$9
other 6% +$3
crypto 2% +$2
sports 2% +$8
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.0% +9.5% 40% 20% -2.2%
≤30d 17 +6.2% -3.9% 24% 6% -7.0%
≤90d 45 +5.6% -4.4% 24% 16% -8.8%
all 58 +4.2% -5.7% 24% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 12% -9.6%
10% -14.7% 10% -18.2%
15% -23.0% 10% -26.1%
20% -30.5% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage602d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $8 +$9 +105%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $7 +$9 +119%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $75 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $77 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 07 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $75 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $75 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $153 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $78 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $75 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $23 $0 -2%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +72%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 +$7 +83%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $11 +$7 +59%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 +$9 +105%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $46 +$6 +12%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $87 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 24 $13,551 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $8 19h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 21h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 23h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $57 42h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $17 44h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $17 45h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 18d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 19d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $14 25d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $14 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 26d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.05 · official $56.05 (match) · 252 history records