Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
46 0x4629…d39a sports 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+7%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate75%89W / 29L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$10
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$8
other 9% +$2
crypto 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +13.3% +2.5% 76% 62% +1.9%
≤30d 118 +6.2% -3.9% 75% 63% -3.7%
≤90d 118 +6.2% -3.9% 75% 63% -3.7%
all 118 +6.2% -3.9% 75% 63% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 63% -3.7%
10% -13.1% 46% -12.9%
15% -21.5% 25% -21.3%
20% -29.2% 9% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses89 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 121
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Over 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 86¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -60%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -53%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +74%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +95%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -24%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +58%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 +$1 +84%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $2 $0 +16%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +23%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Fiji vs. Vanuatu: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +41%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 +$2 +162%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $1 $0 +30%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $2 +$1 +48%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1 $0 +43%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1 6m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 9m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 44m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 45m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $2 46m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $1 53m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 57m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 58m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 58m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 26¢ $0 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $1 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 89¢ $0 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 89¢ $1 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 74¢ $1 9h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 50¢ $1 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 21h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $2 21h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $1 21h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 21h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.65 · official $2.58 (match) · 246 history records