Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4629…ab9a
crypto · 31 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$172 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$186 · open −$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$186
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 31
History coverage14d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 3 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days+$290
14 days+$186
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 27¢ 2¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-94%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $51 +$240 +468%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 +$35 +114%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 +$29 +97%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -25%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $50 +$53 +106%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $102 −$97 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$2 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 31 $2 +$3 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 36% +$264
other 26% −$33
crypto 23% −$103
world 15% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $291 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $51 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 61¢ $40 13h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 37h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $30 37h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $41 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $10 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 84¢ $103 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 71¢ $105 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +22.8% +11.1% 50% 33% +66.9%
≤30d 27 -13.7% -21.9% 37% 26% +26.7%
≤90d 27 -13.7% -21.9% 37% 26% +26.7%
all 27 -13.7% -21.9% 37% 26% +26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 26% +26.7%
10% -29.4% 26% +14.5%
15% -36.2% 26% +3.5%
20% -42.5% 26% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $1.06 (match) · 49 history records