Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x4620…ea85 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,809 (+27%) realized +$6,809 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$542per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$723est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$999
7 days+$4,580
14 days+$6,975
30 days+$6,552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$6,128
crypto 4% +$700
other 1% −$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +5.3% -4.7% 50% 50% +17.0%
≤30d 46 +3.1% -6.7% 48% 48% +15.4%
≤90d 46 +3.1% -6.7% 48% 48% +15.4%
all 46 +3.1% -6.7% 48% 48% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 48% +15.4%
10% -15.7% 46% +4.4%
15% -23.8% 41% -5.7%
20% -31.3% 37% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$541) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$671 vs −$342 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,809
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$723
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage20d
Avg bet$542
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $479 +$484 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $282 −$276 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,414 +$1,259 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $415 +$419 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $122 −$117 -96%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $996 +$115 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $400 −$393 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $499 −$493 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $812 +$1,180 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $413 +$400 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $785 −$374 -48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,013 +$3,033 +151%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $957 −$938 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $510 −$498 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,005 −$1,495 -75%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2,990 +$1,985 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $345 +$534 +155%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $251 −$247 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $364 −$211 -58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $172 +$66 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$197 +194%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $598 −$587 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $300 −$298 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $695 +$1,236 +178%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $420 +$260 +62%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $506 +$910 +180%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $488 −$477 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $140 +$430 +307%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $299 +$337 +113%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $298 −$294 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $92 −$91 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $991 +$1,111 +112%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $247 −$242 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $29 −$28 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $508 +$125 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$2 -35%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $187 +$118 +63%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $272 +$119 +44%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $123 +$40 +32%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $735 −$96 -13%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $451 −$383 -85%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $541 +$412 +76%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $397 −$388 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 86¢ $963 35m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $477 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $281 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 51¢ $2,673 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $7 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $1,407 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $415 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $122 28h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif SELL Jennifer Ruggeri 23¢ $1,093 29h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif SELL Jennifer Ruggeri 24¢ $18 29h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Jennifer Ruggeri 20¢ $996 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $400 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $499 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,992 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $812 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $413 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $412 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $785 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 54¢ $3,266 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 30¢ $1,781 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 16¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 16¢ $2,001 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 32¢ $478 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 32¢ $479 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $445 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $63 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 13¢ $510 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records