Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:09:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x461d…2eda crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized +$80 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%24W / 14L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$80
14 days+$80
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$101
other 9% −$6
sports 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +4.3% -5.6% 63% 53% -3.8%
≤30d 38 +4.3% -5.6% 63% 53% -3.8%
≤90d 38 +4.3% -5.6% 63% 53% -3.8%
all 38 +4.3% -5.6% 63% 53% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 53% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 37% -13.0%
15% -22.9% 32% -21.4%
20% -30.5% 18% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12.749770028425813% → late 21.366190522496865% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses24 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage3d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 73¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $67 −$27 -40%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$9 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $31 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $8 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $29 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.53 · official $37.54 (match) · 148 history records