Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x461c…f74b sports 534 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$68 (+0%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%224W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$83
14 days+$83
30 days−$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$332
other 6% +$165
crypto 2% −$147
world 1% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.2% -23.2% 38% 38% +0.3%
≤30d 61 -21.9% -29.4% 36% 36% -20.7%
≤90d 409 -7.4% -16.2% 41% 41% -14.0%
all 533 -0.1% -9.6% 42% 42% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 42% -10.4%
10% -18.2% 41% -19.0%
15% -26.1% 40% -26.8%
20% -33.4% 38% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$39 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses224 / 309
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions0
Markets (closed)533 / 534
History coverage270d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 533 Trades
no open positions (96 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $85 +$53 +62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $298 −$14 -5%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $73 −$72 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $101 +$119 +119%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $33 −$32 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $102 +$105 +103%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $50 −$49 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $30 −$14 -47%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $34 −$34 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $19 +$15 +78%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Struff (+1.5) Jun 10 $27 −$8 -29%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $36 −$36 -99%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 04 $58 +$46 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $76 −$75 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $50 +$36 +72%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 03 $44 −$43 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $54 +$40 +74%
LoL: Deer Gaming vs The Ruddy Sack (BO5) - NLC Playoffs Jun 03 $42 −$42 -100%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 03 $122 +$48 +40%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 03 $25 +$47 +185%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $51 +$32 +63%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $51 +$44 +88%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $23 +$23 +97%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe Academy vs Arneb - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $9 −$9 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 02 $132 −$80 -60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $51 +$62 +121%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $75 +$39 +52%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $51 +$57 +112%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $31 +$65 +213%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $51 +$33 +64%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $36 +$34 +95%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 02 $42 −$4 -11%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $142 −$52 -36%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $86 −$84 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $26 −$25 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 May 31 $83 −$82 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Farman Hasanov 100¢ $138 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 46¢ $199 2h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 61¢ $85 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $284 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $298 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 34¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 3h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 45¢ $101 15h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ $33 15h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $206 17h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 18h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 18h
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL NRG 32¢ $16 17d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 59¢ $30 17d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 38¢ $25 17d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $34 17d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 99¢ $34 17d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 55¢ $19 17d
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Struff (+1.5) SELL Bublik 40¢ $19 17d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Young Ninjas 56¢ $36 17d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 60¢ $25 17d
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Struff (+1.5) BUY Bublik 54¢ $27 17d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Ares 25¢ $26 17d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $58 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $76 23d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 99¢ $85 23d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $51 23d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 57¢ $50 23d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 50¢ $44 23d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners SELL New York Mets 95¢ $94 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $195.79 · 1053 history records