Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x461b…ef84 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$136 (-7%) realized +$21 · open −$157
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$21
sports 13% −$256
crypto 6% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -21.8% -29.3% 42% 42% -12.2%
≤30d 12 -21.8% -29.3% 42% 42% -12.2%
≤90d 12 -21.8% -29.3% 42% 42% -12.2%
all 12 -21.8% -29.3% 42% 42% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 42% -12.2%
10% -36.1% 42% -20.6%
15% -42.2% 42% -28.2%
20% -47.9% 25% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$73 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$157
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage18d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $250 $180 −$70 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $250 $165 −$85 (-34%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $152 +$75 +49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $112 +$78 +69%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$58 +113%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $153 +$93 +61%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $355 +$167 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $152 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 47¢ $100 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $112 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $153 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $355 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $103 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $258 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $258 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.40 · official $393.40 (match) · 45 history records