Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4619…dfef crypto 427 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$507 (-8%) realized −$601 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%192W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$141
14 days−$176
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$298
crypto 37% −$188
other 10% −$74
politics 7% −$15
sports 4% −$31
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 33% -29.4%
≤30d 191 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 43% -19.3%
≤90d 421 -10.7% -19.2% 46% 42% -18.8%
all 421 -10.7% -19.2% 46% 42% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 42% -18.8%
10% -26.9% 36% -26.6%
15% -34.0% 29% -33.7%
20% -40.5% 20% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$601
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses192 / 229
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)421 / 427
History coverage83d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-13%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 67¢ 90¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 63¢ 58¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 -4%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +25%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$19 +187%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -83%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$15 -60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $5 $0 -10%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$6 +81%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$10 -48%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $10 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 40m
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 53m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $23 57m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 2h
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 2h
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 2h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 2h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 56¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 15h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $11 17h
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 22h
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 32¢ $8 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.97 · official $88.97 (match) · 1138 history records