Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4616…a910
other · 569 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$4,164 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,303 · open −$179
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,365
Realized+$2,303
Unrealized−$179
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses355 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions22
Markets (closed)547 / 569
History coverage132d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 22 History 547 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$34
14 days+$315
30 days+$702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $368 $374 +$6 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 94¢ $289 $352 +$62 (+21%)
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $310 $317 +$7 (+2%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $296 $312 +$16 (+5%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 38¢ 20¢ $285 $153 −$133 (-47%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 44¢ 32¢ $156 $116 −$40 (-25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 87¢ 98¢ $92 $104 +$12 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 61¢ 50¢ $122 $99 −$23 (-19%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 58¢ 84¢ $58 $84 +$26 (+46%)
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $74 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 64¢ $74 $64 −$9 (-13%)
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 64¢ 98¢ $36 $54 +$19 (+53%)
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 65¢ 90¢ $35 $48 +$13 (+38%)
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $34 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 30¢ 28¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-5%)
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? No 83¢ 83¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 75¢ 97¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+29%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 48¢ 4¢ $140 $12 −$128 (-92%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-64%)
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 68¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$15 -20%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 14 $90 +$13 +14%
Will Trump post "Barack Hussein Obama" on Truth Social this week? Jun 13 $271 −$73 -27%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $80 −$5 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $360 +$70 +19%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $61 +$4 +7%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $120 −$30 -25%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $47 +$5 +11%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 12 $135 +$5 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $499 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $75 −$45 -59%
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +9%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $69 +$5 +8%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $32 −$25 -78%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $43 +$24 +55%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $27 +$32 +120%
Will Trump post "Gold" or "Golden" on Truth Social this week? Jun 11 $196 +$5 +2%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 10 $132 +$2 +2%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $124 −$79 -64%
Will Trump post "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" on Truth Socia Jun 10 $143 −$22 -15%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $56 +$9 +16%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $35 +$7 +19%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $71 −$44 -63%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $70 +$6 +8%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $94 +$23 +25%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $36 +$9 +26%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $68 +$42 +62%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 08 $74 +$23 +31%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $63 +$4 +6%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $12 +$9 +77%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $63 +$11 +17%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 06 $62 +$18 +29%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $27 −$14 -52%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $16 +$3 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $46 −$7 -15%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $35 +$4 +11%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $70 +$16 +23%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $56 +$38 +67%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $17 +$1 +8%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $29 +$9 +30%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $46 −$23 -49%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $22 +$5 +21%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $56 +$6 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 30% +$301
politics 25% +$673
other 24% +$94
finance 11% +$466
tech 8% +$564
sports 2% +$38
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$12
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $61 4m
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 76¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 75¢ $7 2h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $17 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 26¢ $0 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 26¢ $15 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $104 3h
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $20 4h
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 4h
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $1 5h
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $7 10h
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 15h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 55¢ $33 15h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 57¢ $5 17h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 58¢ $56 17h
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $7 17h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 59¢ $4 17h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 61¢ $6 17h
Will Trump post "Barack Hussein Obama" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 23h
Will Trump post "Barack Hussein Obama" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 74¢ $75 23h
Will Trump post "Barack Hussein Obama" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $142 23h
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $48 26h
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $7 37h
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $14 37h
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $30 38h
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $89 44h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 55¢ $19 46h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 60¢ $12 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +4.7% -5.3% 71% 41% -10.4%
≤30d 148 +8.9% -1.5% 75% 49% -5.7%
≤90d 495 +6.1% -4.0% 66% 45% -5.3%
all 547 +11.1% +0.5% 65% 45% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 45% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 31% -14.2%
15% -17.9% 20% -22.5%
20% -25.9% 13% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,364.80 · official $2,364.80 (match) · 3500 history records