Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x460e…fd6f
sports · 124 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$68 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$61 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$202
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses38 / 76
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)114 / 124
History coverage62d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 10 History 114 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$46
14 days+$10
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 27¢ 26¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-15%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? Yes 19¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean Leolia Jeanjean 24¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Casper Ruud 45¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Felix Auger-Aliassime 53¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes 15¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 26¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Ben Shelton 67¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Julia Grabher Julia Grabher 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie Cameron Norrie 22¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Alexandra Eala $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Rafael Jodar 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils Arthur Fils 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -71%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 −$1 -54%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $6 +$49 +799%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $4 −$2 -68%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $8 −$4 -53%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$1 -32%
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $7 −$4 -53%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $5 +$6 +120%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $5 +$6 +110%
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka May 28 $3 −$2 -56%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $3 +$3 +100%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw? May 24 $3 −$3 -89%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien May 23 $2 +$6 +283%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $2 +$3 +136%
Will CA Peñarol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? May 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier May 21 $5 −$3 -59%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $2 +$3 +164%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw? May 20 $3 +$2 +57%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Janice Tjen vs Camila Osorio May 20 $3 −$2 -74%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $3 −$1 -53%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Clement Tabur May 19 $5 −$2 -40%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $8 −$7 -87%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Alycia Parks vs Moyuka Uchijima May 18 $3 +$2 +83%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 18 $3 +$2 +88%
Will Nashville SC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw? May 18 $3 −$1 -48%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 17 $5 +$9 +175%
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? May 17 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -84%
Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas end in a draw? May 17 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City end in a draw? May 17 $5 +$9 +166%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 +$5 +100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 14 $1 −$1 -84%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $3 −$1 -36%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% +$7
sports 48% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 11h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 11h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 47h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 27¢ $20 47h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 47h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 47h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $25 47h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 47h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $1 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes 92¢ $55 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev SELL Rafael Jodar $1 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $4 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry SELL Diane Parry 19¢ $4 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 39¢ $8 12d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jesper de Jong $2 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jesper de Jong $2 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jesper de Jong 13¢ $3 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 13d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 13d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $2 13d
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +214.8% +184.8% 33% 33% +424.6%
≤30d 46 +11.9% +1.2% 37% 37% +0.1%
≤90d 114 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 33% -20.8%
all 114 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 33% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 33% -20.8%
10% -25.3% 33% -28.3%
15% -32.5% 33% -35.3%
20% -39.1% 31% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.58 · official $201.58 (match) · 255 history records