Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
46 0x460a…9e42 other 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+8%) realized +$64 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%45W / 49L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$62
14 days+$74
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$9
world 19% −$3
politics 17% +$22
tech 10% −$2
sports 4% +$18
finance 2% +$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +65.6% +49.8% 59% 41% +21.2%
≤30d 94 +24.5% +12.7% 48% 31% +5.5%
≤90d 94 +24.5% +12.7% 48% 31% +5.5%
all 94 +24.5% +12.7% 48% 31% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.7% 31% +5.5%
10% ← realistic here +1.9% 27% -4.6%
15% -8.0% 21% -13.8%
20% -17.0% 18% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$64
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses45 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions80
Markets (closed)94 / 174
History coverage17d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 75¢ 97¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+29%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 76¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? No 76¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? No 30¢ 32¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 42¢ 62¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+46%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? No 78¢ 97¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Sui reach $1.80 before 2027? No 64¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 81¢ 85¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 66¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? No 74¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No 62¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 66¢ 60¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +154%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $3 +$10 +317%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +39%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +152%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$8 +334%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $7 +$5 +73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$2 -13%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -42%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$8 +138%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 11 $4 $0 -12%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +82%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +63%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Jun 10 $2 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $4 $0 -3%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +67%
Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $3 $0 -13%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$19 +1506%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -54%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $6 −$5 -89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $1 +$3 +285%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 06 $1 $0 -14%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $8 −$2 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $4 13m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 69¢ $1 25m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 25m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 36m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 69¢ $1 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 3¢ $1 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 3h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY No 75¢ $4 6h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 32¢ $1 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 7h
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? BUY No 62¢ $3 7h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 31¢ $3 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 7h
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY No 79¢ $2 9h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 10h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 10h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.06 · official $240.67 (match) · 524 history records