Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x4609…7dd4 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$333 (+5%) realized +$335 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate92%45W / 4L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$5
tech 29% +$315
economics 19% −$1
crypto 15% +$22
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.5% 80% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 46 +0.6% -9.0% 93% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 46 +0.6% -9.0% 93% 2% -9.2%
all 49 +3.0% -6.8% 92% 6% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 6% -4.8%
10% -15.8% 4% -13.9%
15% -23.9% 4% -22.3%
20% -31.4% 4% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×21.83 per $1 lost it wins $21.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$335
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses45 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage142d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,400 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 29? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +10%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on May 29? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 26? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $30 +$30 +101%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 23? May 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 23? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 22? May 23 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21? May 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 20? May 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 19? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 18? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Leagu Mar 12 $2 $0 +15%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 11? Mar 12 $303 +$315 +104%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 26 $1,576 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 24h
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $1,199 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1,200 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2,397 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2,400 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $13 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $31 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $11 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $13 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $31 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $33 16d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 29? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 19d
Will XRP reach $1.45 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.80 · official $42.80 (match) · 100 history records