Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:21:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4606…7f19
weather · 865 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,661 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$371 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$371
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses145 / 707
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions13
Markets (closed)852 / 865
History coverage13d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 13 History 852 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$232
14 days−$371
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 100¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+400%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 100¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+1148%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 19¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+219%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$4 -192%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$307
other 14% +$69
sports 12% −$105
weather 2% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 17¢ $75 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $102 9h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 94¢ $78 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $26 9h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 78¢ $81 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $13 9h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY No 99¢ $13 9h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 83¢ $81 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? BUY No 99¢ $13 10h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? BUY No 95¢ $58 10h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY No 99¢ $13 10h
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? BUY Yes 97¢ $39 10h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 89¢ $80 10h
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? BUY No 98¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 786 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 3% -12.8%
≤30d 852 -3.0% -12.2% 17% 8% -14.5%
≤90d 852 -3.0% -12.2% 17% 8% -14.5%
all 852 -3.0% -12.2% 17% 8% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 8% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 2% -22.6%
15% -28.3% 1% -30.1%
20% -35.3% 1% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.73 · official $19.73 (match) · 3500 history records