Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4605…704c
sports · 132 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$43 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses59 / 67
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)126 / 132
History coverage33d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 6 History 126 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$26
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 45¢ 92¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+106%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -78%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$2 -50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 −$2 -79%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +116%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +102%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Niger vs. Mauritania: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Indonesia (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3 −$2 -84%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +55%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +40%
Indonesia leading at halftime? Jun 09 $3 +$3 +86%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $3 +$3 +105%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 +$2 +93%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +48%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +67%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 +$7 +147%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% +$14
other 36% +$21
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $2 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 12h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 14h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $2 15h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 17h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $1 18h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 27h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1 31h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 40h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 14¢ $0 40h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $1 40h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 44h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 44h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $2 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $4 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -11.7% -20.1% 38% 38% -20.8%
≤30d 118 -0.7% -10.2% 44% 44% -5.5%
≤90d 126 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 47% -1.4%
all 126 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 47% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 47% -1.4%
10% -15.1% 47% -10.9%
15% -23.3% 45% -19.5%
20% -30.8% 41% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.39 · official $13.39 (match) · 263 history records