Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4604…cedf
crypto · 102 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$249 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$369 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$369
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses55 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage403d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 0 History 102 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$118
14 days−$118
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$37 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$5 +22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$25 +120%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$30 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$13 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +171%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +35%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$31 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 28 $39 −$35 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 28 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 28 $21 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 28 $40 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 28 $40 −$40 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 28 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 28 $8 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 28 $35 −$13 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 27 $35 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 27 $25 −$21 -85%
Will Juventus finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Mar 25 $84 −$56 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 19 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 19 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 19 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 19 $9 +$3 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% −$150
other 13% −$181
sports 11% −$18
world 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +6.6% -3.5% 58% 54% -27.6%
≤30d 26 +6.6% -3.5% 58% 54% -27.6%
≤90d 61 -18.9% -26.6% 41% 33% -43.9%
all 102 -10.1% -18.6% 54% 39% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 39% -26.7%
10% -26.4% 33% -33.7%
15% -33.5% 25% -40.1%
20% -40.1% 15% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 411 history records