Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4604…e378 crypto 240 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,428 (+16%) realized +$1,428 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%119W / 119L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day154.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$800
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 238 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 50% -1.4%
≤30d 238 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 50% -1.4%
≤90d 238 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 50% -1.4%
all 238 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 50% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover154.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 50% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 49% -10.8%
15% -26.5% 49% -19.4%
20% -33.7% 45% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$26 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$1,428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses119 / 119
Open positions2
Markets (closed)238 / 240
History coverage2d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day154.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 48¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $310 +$171 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $19 +$10 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $433 −$178 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $81 −$81 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$2 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$9 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $69 +$61 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $479 +$110 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $209 −$209 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$3 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$24 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$4 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $312 +$235 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $470 −$374 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$2 +164%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $310 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $19 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $308 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $125 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $81 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $479 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.17 · official $12.09 (match) · 500 history records