Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

46 0x4604…2709 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$34 (+38%) realized +$34 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%5W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+27.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+41.3%	+27.8%	62%	62%	+19.5%
≤30d	8	+41.3%	+27.8%	62%	62%	+19.5%
≤90d	8	+41.3%	+27.8%	62%	62%	+19.5%
all	8	+41.3%	+27.8%	62%	62%	+19.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+27.8%	62%	+19.5%
10%	+15.6%	62%	+8.1%
15%	+4.4%	62%	-2.4%
20%	-5.8%	62%	-11.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +41% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$34

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses5 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)8 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 8 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 28	$26	+$34	+129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 28	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 28	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 28	$5	+$9	+181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$7	+137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 27	$10	+$11	+111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$4	+73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	SELL Down	47¢	$13	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$5	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	SELL Down	36¢	$17	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$5	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	SELL Up	89¢	$5	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$5	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	SELL Up	53¢	$9	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records