Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:57:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4600…78aa
other · 78 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$337 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$503 · open −$188
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$406
Realized+$503
Unrealized−$188
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 37
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions15
Markets (closed)63 / 78
History coverage394d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 15 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $70 $65 −$5 (-7%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 30¢ 27¢ $60 $54 −$6 (-10%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes 52¢ 28¢ $100 $54 −$46 (-46%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $26 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the No. 7 Toyota Racing win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Yes 47¢ 16¢ $28 $9 −$19 (-66%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-59%)
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $40 $4 −$36 (-90%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-90%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? No 7¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 29 $50 +$120 +241%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $20 +$23 +113%
Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by February 28? Feb 22 $30 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? Feb 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $201 +$50 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jan 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 18 $2 +$3 +113%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 12 $50 +$52 +104%
Spread: Manchester City (-0.5) Jan 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? Jan 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025? Jan 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jan 03 $325 −$181 -56%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jan 03 $260 −$234 -90%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Dec 12 $200 +$32 +16%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $620 +$129 +21%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 07 $1,385 +$475 +34%
Will Lando Norris finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? Dec 07 $184 +$111 +60%
Will Solana dip to $120 in November? Nov 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Nov 23 $100 −$76 -76%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Nov 21 $200 +$51 +25%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31? Nov 17 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 16 $100 −$35 -35%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? Nov 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 13 $100 +$45 +45%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Nov 06 $700 +$719 +103%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Nov 06 $804 +$987 +123%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Oct 26 $283 −$283 -100%
Will Jordan Bardella be the next Prime Minister of France? Oct 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 26 $300 +$105 +35%
Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister? Oct 09 $100 +$37 +37%
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 31? Oct 09 $100 +$87 +88%
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025? Sep 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Doge ETF approved in 2025? Sep 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 27 $150 −$150 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% +$1,030
world 12% −$405
crypto 11% +$211
culture 5% −$413
sports 4% −$116
politics 3% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the No. 7 Toyota Racing win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 30d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 30d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 32d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 32d
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 32d
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 32d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 32d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 32d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 99¢ $170 46d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 51d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 42¢ $40 51d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 11¢ $110 59d
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 89d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 33¢ $25 95d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 40¢ $30 95d
Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 106d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 106d
US forces enter Iran by February 28? SELL No 97¢ $30 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 97¢ $30 111d
US forces enter Iran by February 28? BUY No 96¢ $30 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 97¢ $30 112d
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? BUY No 7¢ $27 124d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 135d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 142d
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $10 144d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $25 144d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 56¢ $50 145d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -31.9% -38.4% 20% 20% -48.3%
all 63 -34.2% -40.5% 41% 32% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 32% -4.5%
10% -46.2% 25% -13.6%
15% -51.4% 17% -22.0%
20% -56.1% 14% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.33 · official $406.33 (match) · 354 history records