Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
45 0x45ff…6412 sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,364 (+31%) realized +$1,572 · open −$208
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$807now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$804
other 39% +$242
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +6.7% -3.5% 52% 52% +24.3%
≤30d 33 +6.7% -3.5% 52% 52% +24.3%
≤90d 33 +6.7% -3.5% 52% 52% +24.3%
all 33 +6.7% -3.5% 52% 52% +24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 52% +24.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 48% +12.4%
15% -21.2% 42% +1.5%
20% -28.9% 36% -8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$35 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$807
Realized+$1,572
Unrealized−$208
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions8
Markets (closed)33 / 41
History coverage2d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $300 $279 −$21 (-7%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 44¢ $250 $169 −$81 (-33%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Over 80¢ 66¢ $200 $165 −$35 (-18%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 32¢ $150 $86 −$64 (-43%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+54%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 11¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes $15 $9 −$6 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $202 −$107 -53%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $102 +$161 +158%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $151 +$72 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $253 +$157 +62%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$127 +250%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 +$110 +55%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $71 +$9 +13%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$53 +26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$210 +206%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $201 +$55 +27%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$99 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $172 −$6 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 −$5 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 31¢ $95 0m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 95¢ $263 10m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 55m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 55m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 56m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $15 57m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 63¢ $202 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $102 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $201 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $152 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $152 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $305 2h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes $10 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 12¢ $21 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $41 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $61 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $51 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 5h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $21 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 7h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $202 8h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $49 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $281 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $255 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $806.83 · official $804.63 (match) · 66 history records