Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x45fe…97ab other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+1%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%18W / 89L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$6
politics 30% −$4
sports 14% +$118
economics 5% −$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 107 +4.9% -5.1% 17% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 10% -8.8%
10% -14.2% 9% -17.6%
15% -22.5% 7% -25.5%
20% -30.1% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×15.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses18 / 89
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage123d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $153 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $117 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $380 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $122 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $137 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 15 $133 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $314 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $288 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $130 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $146 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $142 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $209 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $161 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $451 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $241 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $441 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 03 $405 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $145 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $373 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $267 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $282 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $267 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in March? Apr 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 01 $123 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $130 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $319 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $268 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $153 9d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $153 21d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $117 26d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $117 31d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $124 31d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $124 32d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $118 59d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $118 60d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $110 60d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $110 60d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $129 60d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $129 60d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $150 60d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $150 61d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $122 61d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $122 61d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $137 61d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $137 61d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $161 61d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $161 62d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $159 62d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $159 62d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $123 62d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $123 62d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $143 63d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $143 63d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $120 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 294 history records