Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:36:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45fe…7cce crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$92 (-14%) realized −$61 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$68
crypto 17% −$22
sports 6% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.5% -1.0% 50% 50% +1.4%
≤30d 2 +9.5% -1.0% 50% 50% +1.4%
≤90d 47 -37.6% -43.5% 30% 30% -25.2%
all 70 -31.6% -38.1% 31% 31% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 31% -23.3%
10% -44.0% 29% -30.7%
15% -49.5% 29% -37.4%
20% -54.4% 29% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage192d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 4¢ $33 $2 −$31 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $19 $0 -2%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs Dewa United Esports May 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $2 +$3 +146%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 28 $1 $0 -30%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 28 $4 −$3 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 03 $0 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +89%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 03 $15 −$7 -49%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Apr 03 $255 +$55 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 3-9? Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Apr 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 03 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $25 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 18 $2 +$4 +187%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $33 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $19 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $19 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 27h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs Dewa United Esports BUY Dewa United Esports 58¢ $5 33d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 52d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 56d
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $1 56d
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $1 56d
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 61d
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 81d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 81d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 81d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 81d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 81d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 81d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.80 (match) · 138 history records