Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45fe…f74e
other · 152 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$59 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$61 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses87 / 63
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 152
History coverage118d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 2 History 150 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? No 67¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+49%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $26 +$8 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $304 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $247 −$2 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 07 $4 $0 +3%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 30 $9 −$5 -50%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 30 $14 $0 -1%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 29 $178 +$4 +2%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $211 +$2 +1%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $0 $0 -0%
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $0 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $38 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $17 $0 +0%
Rome: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Apr 22 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% −$132
weather 21% +$74
world 6% +$14
crypto 0% −$11
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $51 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $3 10h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $187 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $88 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $94 16h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $40 16h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $40 16h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 77¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 77¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 77¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 77¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 77¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 77¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +0.3% -9.2% 81% 14% -8.7%
≤30d 37 +0.3% -9.2% 81% 14% -8.7%
≤90d 124 +21.1% +9.6% 63% 23% -9.3%
all 150 +12.3% +1.6% 58% 22% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 22% -10.2%
10% -8.1% 15% -18.8%
15% -17.0% 10% -26.6%
20% -25.1% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.09 · official $53.09 (match) · 1006 history records