Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x45fe…2423 sports 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$97 (+23%) realized +$82 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$134
14 days+$134
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$84
other 31% +$4
crypto 13% −$16
world 5% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +20.0% +8.5% 45% 45% +41.9%
≤30d 28 +4.4% -5.6% 43% 43% +20.3%
≤90d 28 +4.4% -5.6% 43% 43% +20.3%
all 30 -2.6% -11.9% 40% 40% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 40% +14.9%
10% -20.3% 33% +3.9%
15% -28.0% 33% -6.1%
20% -35.1% 33% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage160d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 64¢ 100¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+56%)
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Yes 50¢ 49¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Over 50¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 +$32 +157%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$31 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +262%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$27 +105%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 +$9 +68%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$24 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 12m
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $15 27m
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 43¢ $8 29m
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 78¢ $15 34m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 37m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $30 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $53 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 20h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 18¢ $2 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 3d
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $2 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $25 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down $1 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.52 · official $82.52 (match) · 207 history records