Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45f7…b841 other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%21W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$24
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$15
other 24% −$30
sports 19% −$11
crypto 10% −$10
culture 5% −$5
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$5
finance 4% +$2
tech 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 70 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 125 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 144 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses21 / 123
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage100d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 92¢ 92¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $26 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $165 −$3 -2%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $164 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $57 +$2 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $48 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $48 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $40 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $29 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $100 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $56 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $60 −$3 -5%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $67 −$2 -3%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $461 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $107 −$1 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 03 $56 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 02 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $48 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $62 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $43 55m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $50 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $50 5h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 6h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 14h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $47 14h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $47 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $59 23h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $60 28h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 29h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 34h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $43 34h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $43 38h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $40 39h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 43h
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $26 44h
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $26 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $17 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $17 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $47 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $48 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $51 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $51 3d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $65 3d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $65 3d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.59 · official $42.59 (match) · 488 history records