Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45f6…1945 world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate45%35W / 42L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$11
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$15
other 18% −$3
politics 15% −$1
sports 12% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 17% -7.3%
≤30d 26 +2.9% -6.9% 46% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 62 +1.4% -8.2% 45% 5% -9.1%
all 77 -4.1% -13.3% 45% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 8% -9.2%
10% -21.6% 3% -17.9%
15% -29.1% 1% -25.8%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses35 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage528d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 75¢ 76¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $24 +$3 +13%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $49 +$2 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $41 +$4 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $12 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $149 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $6 +$2 +42%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $127 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $129 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $39 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $76 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $122 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $59 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $4 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $53 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $108 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $164 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1 $0 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $33 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $3 $0 +6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $28 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $24 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $45 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $48 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.93 · official $27.57 (match) · 329 history records