Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x45f2…722e sports 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$200 (+2%) realized +$175 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days+$108
14 days+$155
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$382
other 16% −$217
crypto 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 63% 58% -5.0%
≤30d 59 +3.5% -6.4% 53% 41% -7.7%
≤90d 59 +3.5% -6.4% 53% 41% -7.7%
all 59 +3.5% -6.4% 53% 41% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 41% -7.7%
10% -15.3% 29% -16.5%
15% -23.5% 24% -24.6%
20% -31.0% 12% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$27 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,464
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 28
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions14
Markets (closed)59 / 74
History coverage10d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Under 55¢ 77¢ $200 $280 +$80 (+40%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $250 $254 +$4 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Mbappe 63¢ 77¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 100¢ $26 $40 +$14 (+55%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Over 39¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $183 +$117 +64%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $151 +$24 +16%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $152 −$18 -12%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $200 +$17 +8%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $113 +$51 +46%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $283 +$104 +37%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $114 −$2 -1%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $101 −$37 -37%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$15 -30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$9 +58%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$6 +61%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $205 +$45 +22%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $85 +$15 +17%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $45 +$5 +11%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $103 +$17 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$5 +11%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$70 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $56 +$44 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$69 -68%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $120 −$118 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $402 +$17 +4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $190 −$34 -18%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $452 +$19 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $179 +$70 +39%
Cucurella: 1+ shots Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,501 +$17 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $76 +$38 +50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$57 +1115%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $19 21m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 44m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 46m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 53m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 55m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 35¢ $67 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 37¢ $1 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $79 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $24 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $12 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $11 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $102 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $32 37h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $183 37h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 37h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 38h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 38h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $5 38h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $11 38h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 46h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 46h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $151 46h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Senegal 68¢ $135 46h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $217 46h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 70¢ $35 46h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Under 40¢ $53 47h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 90¢ $376 47h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Under 31¢ $111 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,463.70 · official $1,456.48 (match) · 206 history records