Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45ec…6d9e crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+3%) realized +$43 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%47W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day50.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$12
other 4% −$77
sports 1% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +3.1% -6.7% 49% 48% -10.6%
≤30d 95 +3.1% -6.7% 49% 48% -10.6%
≤90d 95 +3.1% -6.7% 49% 48% -10.6%
all 95 +3.1% -6.7% 49% 48% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 48% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 47% -19.1%
15% -23.8% 46% -26.9%
20% -31.3% 43% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses47 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage7d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day50.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Down 45¢ 100¢ $14 $32 +$18 (+122%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $95 −$92 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $48 +$50 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $28 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$18 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$53 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$86 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$44 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$42 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$15 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$16 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$36 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $48 +$61 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$30 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $99 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.15 · official $32.15 (match) · 376 history records