Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45e7…08eb sports 261 markets active 2d ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$856 (-24%) realized −$856 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%94W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$7
14 days−$33
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$664
other 24% −$196
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.3% -2.0% 40% 40% -3.6%
≤30d 29 -18.3% -26.1% 34% 34% -27.1%
≤90d 182 -65.0% -68.4% 15% 14% -73.1%
all 260 -10.9% -19.4% 36% 35% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 35% -31.6%
10% -27.1% 33% -38.2%
15% -34.1% 32% -44.1%
20% -40.6% 30% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$856
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses94 / 166
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage368d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$23 +335%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +109%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +178%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$18 +262%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 +$5 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$10 +109%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$6 +104%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $16 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $8 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $13 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $9 +$6 +70%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 May 31 $11 −$11 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $29 +$21 +70%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 16 $10 +$8 +72%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $11 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $17 +$8 +47%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $4 +$6 +156%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Vitória SC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $18 −$17 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $20 +$8 +39%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $6 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $7 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 29¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 23¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 23¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 41¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 41¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 18¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 37¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 76¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $10 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 55¢ $11 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 26¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 28¢ $6 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 48¢ $16 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sharks 43¢ $17 13d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 37¢ $8 13d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 26¢ $8 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 41¢ $13 14d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 49¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 31¢ $11 17d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 58¢ $9 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 34¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.65 · official $5.65 (match) · 565 history records