Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45e6…8fca weather 1841 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,188 (+6%) realized +$1,235 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%668W / 912L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day58.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$475now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$809
7 days−$552
14 days−$358
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$1,658
world 2% −$50
sports 2% +$188
other 1% +$14
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 +37.3% +24.2% 49% 40% -23.8%
≤30d 822 +20.8% +9.3% 46% 36% -11.7%
≤90d 1580 +8.7% -1.6% 42% 32% -7.4%
all 1580 +8.7% -1.6% 42% 32% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 32% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 28% -16.3%
15% -19.6% 27% -24.4%
20% -27.5% 25% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$475
Realized+$1,235
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses668 / 912
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions100
Markets (closed)1580 / 1841
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day58.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 100 History 1580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 23? No 98¢ 100¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $105 $72 −$33 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $5 $28 +$23 (+488%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? Yes 10¢ 32¢ $4 $14 +$9 (+225%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? Yes 37¢ 98¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+166%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 23? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 24? Yes 17¢ 38¢ $4 $10 +$5 (+121%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 40¢ 82¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+106%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? Yes 27¢ 42¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Yes 32¢ 84¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+161%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23? Yes 39¢ 99¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+155%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 18¢ 99¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+451%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 24? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 24? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 67¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 25? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 399 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 1? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 6? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on May 6? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 6? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 16 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 7? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on May 5? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 8? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 6? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 7? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 5? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 20? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 8? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 30? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 6? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 8? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 29? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 5? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 6? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 28? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 28? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 18? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 27? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on April 16? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on May 6? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 8? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 6? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 2? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17? Jun 23 $1,256 −$1,256 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 29? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 24? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 7? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 28? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 8? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 4? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 6? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 7? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 8? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 19? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 25? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 25? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $79 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 25? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 25? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $474.84 · official $474.85 (match) · 3500 history records