Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
45 0x45e4…3c69 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$37,200 (+47%) realized +$37,200 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$2,825per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$636est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$24,688
other 26% +$13,114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +21.1% +9.6% 69% 69% +34.9%
≤30d 26 +21.1% +9.6% 69% 69% +34.9%
≤90d 26 +21.1% +9.6% 69% 69% +34.9%
all 26 +21.1% +9.6% 69% 69% +34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.6% 69% +34.9%
10% ← realistic here -0.9% 69% +22.0%
15% -10.5% 65% +10.2%
20% -19.3% 50% -0.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,027) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,580 vs −$1,080 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.38 per $1 lost it wins $5.38
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,000
Realized+$37,200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$636
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2,825
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1,000 $1,007 +$7 (+1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Roberto Carballes Baena Mackenzie McDonald 68¢ 68¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $3,027 +$2,421 +80%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 24 $509 −$509 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,516 +$828 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,514 +$691 +46%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $1,315 +$1,177 +90%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R Jun 23 $1,290 −$1,272 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $506 +$331 +65%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $1,522 +$1,363 +90%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $204 +$352 +172%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $2,031 −$2,031 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $1,014 +$836 +82%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 23 $6,061 +$3,420 +56%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $1,009 +$420 +42%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $760 −$760 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,033 +$1,729 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7,118 +$8,954 +126%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $505 +$252 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,038 +$1,844 +46%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $22,825 +$7,490 +33%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $2,028 +$1,701 +84%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10,165 +$12,057 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 90¢ $2,006 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Roberto Carballes BUY Mackenzie McDonald 68¢ $1,010 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 31¢ $1,021 2h
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R BUY University War 35¢ $277 12h
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R BUY University War 58¢ $1,013 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 70¢ $1,009 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 28¢ $306 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,514 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,516 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova SELL Anastasia Gasanova 100¢ $1,850 19h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $506 19h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $509 19h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Anastasia Gasanova 54¢ $1,014 20h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 38¢ $1,019 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 59¢ $1,012 21h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 36¢ $204 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 71¢ $5,043 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 41¢ $1,018 23h
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 70¢ $1,009 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $1,522 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $1,011 37h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $760 37h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5,085 40h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $505 41h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 56¢ $676 42h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 63¢ $3,033 42h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 62¢ $5,057 42h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 82¢ $1,005 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,999.79 · official $1,999.79 (match) · 70 history records