Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45e3…de14 sports 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$282 (+5%) realized +$282 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate71%65W / 27L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day103.7pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$168
crypto 6% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +8.0% -2.3% 71% 36% -6.0%
≤30d 92 +8.0% -2.3% 71% 36% -6.0%
≤90d 92 +8.0% -2.3% 71% 36% -6.0%
all 92 +8.0% -2.3% 71% 36% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 36% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 20% -15.0%
15% -20.2% 10% -23.2%
20% -28.0% 5% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$282
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses65 / 27
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage4d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day103.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $99 −$6 -6%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $54 +$4 +8%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort Jun 27 $50 +$3 +6%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $104 +$33 +32%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $202 +$7 +4%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $292 −$4 -1%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $191 +$12 +6%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $78 +$12 +15%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $350 +$26 +7%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $49 +$5 +11%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 27 $51 −$2 -3%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $143 +$10 +7%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $55 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $132 +$7 +5%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $130 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $254 +$53 +21%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $44 −$8 -18%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $71 +$14 +20%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $27 +$2 +7%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $281 +$7 +2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $113 +$8 +7%
Piracicaba: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 26 $111 −$7 -6%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Nicolas Zanellato Jun 26 $58 +$2 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $48 +$10 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$5 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $41 −$2 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$6 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +7%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $445 −$81 -18%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $173 +$16 +9%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $38 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $196 −$27 -14%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $269 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $217 +$31 +14%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $149 +$14 +9%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $57 +$12 +20%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $51 +$7 +13%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $80 +$10 +13%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $38 +$1 +4%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $105 +$7 +7%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$2 +7%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich Jun 25 $22 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$6 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 99¢ $51 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 78¢ $40 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 63¢ $42 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 86¢ $58 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $58 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 92¢ $54 2h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 87¢ $39 10h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 87¢ $1 10h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 92¢ $12 10h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 83¢ $50 10h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 96¢ $137 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 75¢ $65 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 68¢ $38 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $108 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 94¢ $38 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 94¢ $16 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 94¢ $16 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 94¢ $16 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 94¢ $16 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 92¢ $102 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 93¢ $47 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 89¢ $27 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 89¢ $26 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 99¢ $100 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 91¢ $92 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 76¢ $15 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 83¢ $2 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 71¢ $41 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 72¢ $10 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 72¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 424 history records