Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
45 0x45e3…1d9c other 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,297 (+2%) realized +$1,531 · open +$766
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate80%66W / 17L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$1,359per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$12,202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$643
30 days+$1,316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 18% +$371
other 17% +$705
tech 16% +$1,115
world 14% +$60
politics 12% +$280
sports 11% +$406
crypto 10% −$464
economics 2% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -10.5% -19.0% 60% 10% -5.2%
≤90d 39 -5.5% -14.5% 72% 13% -7.4%
all 83 -4.6% -13.7% 80% 13% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 13% -8.4%
10% -22.0% 7% -17.1%
15% -29.5% 4% -25.1%
20% -36.4% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$2,101) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$76 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$12,202
Realized+$1,531
Unrealized+$766
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses66 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions13
Markets (closed)83 / 96
History coverage120d
Avg bet$1,359
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $6,733 $7,107 +$374 (+6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $1,620 $1,570 −$50 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 86¢ 99¢ $1,313 $1,517 +$204 (+16%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? No 52¢ 95¢ $361 $666 +$305 (+85%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $549 $412 −$137 (-25%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $290 $298 +$8 (+3%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $146 $149 +$3 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $126 $126 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 94¢ $83 $111 +$27 (+33%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 54¢ 86¢ $54 $86 +$31 (+57%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 59¢ 70¢ $59 $70 +$12 (+19%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $52 $49 −$3 (-6%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $49 $42 −$7 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $9,560 +$440 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $104 −$10 -10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $3,205 +$194 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $11 +$19 +178%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 06 $860 +$60 +7%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $9,676 +$473 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $3,840 +$160 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 22 $10,462 +$32 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $2,390 +$7 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $2,203 +$97 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $50 +$20 +41%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $1,074 +$6 +1%
NBA: Co-Rookie of the Year winners? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 27 $45 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $2,352 +$75 +3%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $56 +$6 +10%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $458 +$42 +9%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 15 $600 −$84 -14%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $7,308 −$97 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 12 $2,315 +$19 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $1,622 +$15 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Apr 01 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $2,731 +$19 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $4,410 +$90 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 31 $277 +$36 +13%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $1,800 +$193 +11%
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $2,145 +$53 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $208 +$15 +7%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March Mar 25 $16 +$24 +156%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Mar 25 $209 +$6 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Mar 25 $1,986 +$8 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Mar 25 $2,156 +$13 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Mar 24 $8 −$5 -65%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 17 to March Mar 24 $242 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $164 +$36 +22%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March Mar 22 $4,155 +$25 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20? Mar 21 $4,289 +$26 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 20? Mar 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $2,125 +$24 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $2,142 +$9 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 15 $2,123 +$11 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 6 to Marc Mar 14 $2,101 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 13 $2 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 13 $2 $0 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $59 27m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $129 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 27¢ $27 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 27¢ $540 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $1,635 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $49 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 4d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 5d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 73¢ $12 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 5d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 73¢ $114 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $648 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $3,760 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $290 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $2,325 9d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $77 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $94 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $2,766 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $40 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $25 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $146 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $52 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $50 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $129 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $190 10d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? BUY No 52¢ $128 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,201.96 · official $12,204.97 (match) · 394 history records