Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45e1…5934
sports · 360 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$266,190 -173%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$267,813 · open +$1,840
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$73,613
Realized−$267,813
Unrealized+$1,840
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses224 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$294
Open positions92
Markets (closed)517 / 360
History coverage4d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day893.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 92 History 517 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$268,767
7 days−$267,813
14 days−$267,813
30 days−$267,813
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 86¢ 99¢ $11,716 $13,546 +$1,830 (+16%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $12,626 $12,667 +$40 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $10,479 $11,629 +$1,150 (+11%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,793 $3,795 +$2 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $3,679 $3,684 +$5 (+0%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $1,862 $2,064 +$202 (+11%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1,704 $1,757 +$53 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 82¢ 84¢ $1,438 $1,463 +$25 (+2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,295 $1,297 +$3 (+0%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,164 $1,164 +$1 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $1,003 $1,004 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 99¢ 100¢ $957 $969 +$12 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 79¢ 99¢ $768 $963 +$195 (+25%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? No 89¢ 90¢ $874 $882 +$9 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? No 95¢ 96¢ $751 $757 +$6 (+1%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 91¢ 98¢ $686 $745 +$59 (+9%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $735 $736 +$0 (+0%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $743 $727 −$16 (-2%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $688 $691 +$3 (+0%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 77¢ 74¢ $711 $687 −$24 (-3%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 99¢ 100¢ $635 $639 +$3 (+1%)
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 81¢ 69¢ $647 $555 −$92 (-14%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $540 $541 +$1 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 90¢ 36¢ $1,357 $535 −$822 (-61%)
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 100¢ 100¢ $502 $502 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $83 −$83 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 13 $1,335 −$1,335 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $772 −$772 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Jun 13 $3,633 −$3,633 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 13 $302 −$302 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 13 $14,209 −$14,209 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Jun 13 $3,610 −$3,610 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 13 $3,273 −$3,273 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 13 $316 −$316 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 13 $750 −$750 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $1,958 −$1,958 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 13 $123 −$123 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 13 $4,322 −$4,322 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 13 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 13 $226 −$226 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $357 −$357 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Jun 13 $2,516 −$2,516 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 13 $401 −$401 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 13 $716 −$716 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 13 $527 −$527 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro Jun 13 $244 −$244 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $752 −$752 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o Jun 13 $201 −$201 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 13 $10,296 −$10,296 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $4,704 −$4,704 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2,955 −$2,955 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 44% −$7,865
other 36% +$4,722
crypto 13% +$4,860
politics 3% +$4,030
economics 2% +$802
finance 1% +$17
tech 1% +$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $54 0m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $5 1m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $61 1m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $3 1m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $6 1m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $74 1m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $12 1m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 91¢ $33 1m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 90¢ $33 2m
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 2m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $202 3m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 89¢ $4 3m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $8 3m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $267 3m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $41 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $387 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $246 4m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $22 6m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $13 9m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 91¢ $6 9m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $76 10m
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY No 78¢ $8 12m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 80¢ $62 15m
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $4 16m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $179 17m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $144 17m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $95 17m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $18 17m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $89 17m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $5 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 517 -37.3% -43.3% 43% 25% -72.7%
≤30d 517 -37.3% -43.3% 43% 25% -72.7%
≤90d 517 -37.3% -43.3% 43% 25% -72.7%
all 517 -37.3% -43.3% 43% 25% -72.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover893.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.3% 25% -72.7%
10% -48.7% 13% -75.3%
15% ← realistic here -53.7% 7% -77.7%
20% -58.2% 4% -79.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73,612.88 · official $73,612.97 (match) · 3500 history records