Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45dd…1e20 crypto 495 markets active 0h ago coverage 383d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 382d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,410 (-7%) realized −$5,608 · open +$198
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate85%403W / 73L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,542now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 383d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$861
world 8% +$875
other 4% +$165
sports 2% −$8
politics 2% +$73
economics 2% +$113
finance 0% −$5
tech 0% +$113
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -24.0% -31.3% 43% 43% -4.0%
≤30d 28 -7.5% -16.3% 79% 25% -9.3%
≤90d 146 -19.5% -27.1% 66% 25% -27.2%
all 476 +0.7% -8.9% 85% 33% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 33% -7.1%
10% -17.6% 15% -16.0%
15% -25.6% 8% -24.1%
20% -32.9% 5% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$53 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$2,542
Realized−$5,608
Unrealized+$198
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses403 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions19
Markets (closed)476 / 495
History coverage383d ⚠
Avg bet$158
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 476 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 93¢ 98¢ $409 $431 +$23 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $352 $352 −$1 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 82¢ $204 $214 +$10 (+5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 83¢ 94¢ $182 $206 +$24 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 66¢ 90¢ $145 $199 +$54 (+37%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $180 $188 +$7 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 89¢ 94¢ $140 $148 +$8 (+6%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $123 $126 +$3 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 72¢ $102 $116 +$14 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 60¢ $89 $91 +$2 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 91¢ 100¢ $82 $90 +$8 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 67¢ 89¢ $57 $76 +$19 (+33%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 75¢ 88¢ $60 $71 +$11 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 92¢ 97¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+5%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 55¢ 82¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 −$21 -23%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $26 +$16 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 15 $9 −$6 -73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $42 +$17 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $397 +$115 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $316 +$17 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $657 +$39 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 02 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $62 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $55 +$3 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $86 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $142 +$8 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $56 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $54 +$16 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $110 +$7 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 31 $61 +$26 +43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $609 +$69 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $341 +$21 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $37 +$3 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $20 $0 +2%
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 17 $36 −$8 -22%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 17 $20 −$8 -37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $28 −$14 -49%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $149 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $28 +$2 +5%
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji May 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $6 +$4 +64%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $16 26m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $35 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $25 2h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $42 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $24 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 37h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $7 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 37¢ $11 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $12 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $48 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $50 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,541.81 · official $2,541.89 (match) · 3500 history records