Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45db…51c6 crypto 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,690 (-7%) realized −$5,690 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate72%207W / 82L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days−$2,328
14 days−$2,622
30 days−$2,762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$4,375
sports 31% −$1,296
other 0% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -19.2% -26.9% 67% 11% -50.9%
≤30d 22 -9.0% -17.7% 73% 18% -34.3%
≤90d 26 -15.5% -23.6% 65% 15% -34.4%
all 289 -0.4% -9.9% 72% 33% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 33% -16.1%
10% -18.5% 16% -24.1%
15% -26.4% 8% -31.4%
20% -33.6% 3% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$143 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,690
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses207 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)289 / 289
History coverage379d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 289 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET Jun 26 $466 +$42 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET Jun 26 $407 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $497 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $604 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $503 +$107 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $528 −$501 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $1,998 −$1,998 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $475 −$475 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $47 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $400 +$185 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $286 +$233 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $495 −$495 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,686 +$28 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $228 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $150 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $443 +$30 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $179 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 29 $563 +$36 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9AM ET May 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 13 $502 −$101 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 13 $101 −$56 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 12 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5AM ET Oct 25 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4AM ET Oct 25 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3AM ET Oct 25 $98 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET Oct 25 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1AM ET Oct 25 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET Oct 25 $125 −$66 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET Oct 25 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10AM ET Oct 18 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9AM ET Oct 18 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Oct 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Oct 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Oct 13 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 9AM ET Aug 08 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 8AM ET Aug 08 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 7AM ET Aug 08 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 6AM ET Aug 08 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 5AM ET Aug 08 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8? Aug 07 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 6AM ET Aug 07 $1,494 −$1,494 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5AM ET Aug 07 $166 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 11AM ET Aug 06 $109 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10AM ET Aug 06 $109 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8AM ET Aug 06 $109 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 7AM ET Aug 06 $245 +$26 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $111 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $107 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $226 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $80 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $155 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 94¢ $244 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2833 history records