Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45d8…969e crypto 628 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,749 (-6%) realized −$2,749 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%337W / 291L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$2,472
other 8% −$909
sports 0% −$78
economics 0% −$70
world 0% −$17
politics 0% −$99
culture 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.2% -39.6% 33% 33% -69.6%
≤30d 4 -49.9% -54.7% 25% 25% -78.4%
≤90d 24 -45.1% -50.3% 38% 25% -57.6%
all 628 -10.9% -19.4% 54% 47% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 47% -17.3%
10% -27.1% 40% -25.2%
15% -34.1% 30% -32.5%
20% -40.6% 23% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$47 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,749
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses337 / 291
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)628 / 628
History coverage181d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 628 Trades
no open positions (193 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$42 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET Jun 07 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen May 18 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 25 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 25 $43 −$42 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 25 $26 +$17 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 25 $27 +$25 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 25 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 25 $30 +$8 +28%
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Apr 25 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 2AM ET Apr 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 17 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 11 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 02 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 02 $17 −$3 -20%
San Luis Potosi: Facundo Mena vs Patrick Zahraj Apr 02 $16 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 2AM ET Apr 01 $13 +$3 +22%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Apr 01 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 28 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 28 $7 +$5 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 27 $4 +$3 +76%
Spread: Israel (-2.5) Mar 27 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 25 $49 −$48 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 25 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12AM ET Mar 25 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 24 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3PM ET Mar 24 $162 −$77 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Mar 24 $68 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2PM ET Mar 24 $39 +$27 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1PM ET Mar 24 $41 +$30 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 24 $115 −$22 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12PM ET Mar 24 $50 +$49 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 24 $67 −$41 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 24 $50 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11AM ET Mar 24 $94 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $23 +$16 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 15? Mar 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5PM ET Mar 14 $200 +$42 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $32 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 40d
Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen BUY Alex Michelsen 88¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $43 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $43 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $30 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 64d
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 64d
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 2AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $29 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 71d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY No 30¢ $99 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $13 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $14 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $17 87d
San Luis Potosi: Facundo Mena vs Patrick Zahraj BUY Facundo Mena 91¢ $16 87d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 2AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $13 88d
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) BUY Serbia 99¢ $13 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1308 history records