Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
45 0x45d6…d0c0 politics 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,970 (+1%) realized +$1,971 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate23%31W / 103L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,415per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$43
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$98
other 35% −$313
sports 13% +$2,364
culture 5% −$9
world 2% +$2
economics 1% −$3
finance 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 90 -7.7% -16.5% 10% 6% -9.1%
all 134 +0.5% -9.0% 23% 13% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 13% -8.6%
10% -17.7% 13% -17.4%
15% -25.7% 8% -25.3%
20% -33.0% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,560) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$8 · ×10.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$1,127
Realized+$1,971
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses31 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,415
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $785 $785 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $343 $342 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $727 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,135 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $895 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,915 −$5 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,673 −$4 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,759 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $807 −$1 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $79 −$79 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $72 +$70 +97%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,411 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $338 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $501 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,028 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,748 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $755 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $761 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 25 $78 +$65 +83%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,457 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $3,787 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $2,214 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,225 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,892 −$3 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,429 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $3,084 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,491 −$2 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,468 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $786 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $726 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $727 4h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $789 17h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $790 23h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $894 45h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $895 47h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $343 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,361 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,363 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,051 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,052 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,387 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,389 6d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,307 6d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,309 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,318 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,320 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,054 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,056 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,306 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,308 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $806 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $807 8d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $79 10d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,184 11d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,186 11d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Miami Marlins 50¢ $72 11d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,248 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,250 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,127.46 · official $1,127.46 (match) · 467 history records