Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45d3…9364 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$364 (-12%) realized −$320 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%21W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$190
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$143
sports 32% −$33
world 3% −$75
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +46.1% +32.2% 50% 50% -8.8%
≤30d 8 +46.1% +32.2% 50% 50% -8.8%
≤90d 12 +36.4% +23.4% 50% 50% -13.0%
all 54 -3.2% -12.4% 39% 37% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 37% -16.2%
10% -20.8% 35% -24.2%
15% -28.4% 33% -31.6%
20% -35.5% 31% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$43 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$320
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses21 / 33
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage103d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Under 5¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $43 +$190 +442%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $110 −$108 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 +$65 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $104 +$171 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $59 +$45 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 27 $31 +$33 +107%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Apr 27 $102 −$70 -69%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $63 +$67 +105%
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 13 $100 −$75 -75%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5 Mar 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 14 $8 −$8 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 Mar 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 14 $74 +$54 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Mar 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Mar 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Mar 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 10 $80 −$40 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 09 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 09 $125 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 09 $44 +$41 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 09 $45 +$29 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 09 $30 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 09 $40 +$112 +279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 09 $44 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 09 $50 +$59 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 09 $30 +$42 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 09 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 09 $40 −$15 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 09 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 09 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 09 $43 +$40 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 09 $40 −$23 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 09 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 09 $56 +$107 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 09 $66 +$26 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 09 $30 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Mar 09 $50 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8AM ET Mar 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 09 $20 −$14 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 09 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 09 $30 +$33 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $233 16m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $43 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $45 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $110 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $141 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $76 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $104 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $104 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $59 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $147 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $147 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $64 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $64 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 54d
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 SELL Over 11¢ $31 54d
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 SELL Over 15¢ $1 54d
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 54d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $130 55d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 48¢ $63 55d
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? SELL No 6¢ $9 68d
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? SELL No 10¢ $15 68d
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? BUY No 31¢ $39 69d
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? BUY No 31¢ $30 69d
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? BUY No 31¢ $31 69d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $10 94d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5 BUY Under 44¢ $43 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $38 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $54 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $24 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $16 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.44 (match) · 133 history records