Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45d3…eda0 crypto 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$540 (-1%) realized −$611 · open +$71
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate84%119W / 22L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$919now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$315
14 days−$1,519
30 days−$1,519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$647
crypto 11% −$12
other 4% −$1,170
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 85% 8% -17.4%
≤30d 16 -13.3% -21.6% 75% 6% -37.5%
≤90d 40 +0.9% -8.7% 88% 25% -31.5%
all 141 -4.2% -13.3% 84% 23% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 23% -10.9%
10% -21.6% 11% -19.4%
15% -29.2% 4% -27.2%
20% -36.1% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$95 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$919
Realized−$611
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses119 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)141 / 147
History coverage127d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $550 $617 +$67 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $247 $245 −$2 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 35¢ 83¢ $4 $8 +$5 (+136%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $974 +$30 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $107 +$3 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $17 +$3 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $38 −$28 -74%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $488 −$346 -71%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $550 +$6 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $1,165 +$12 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,194 −$1,191 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $84 −$13 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 04 $422 +$26 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 03 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 02 $83 +$2 +2%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 01 $17 +$3 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $36 +$4 +12%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 29 $3 +$1 +34%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $9 +$1 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $119 +$7 +6%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 27 $168 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $28 +$2 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $7 +$3 +43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $9 +$1 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $10 $0 +4%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 16 $61 +$4 +7%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by March 31? Apr 04 $5 $0 +9%
Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March? Apr 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Iran strike Syria in March? Apr 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Iran strike Yemen in March? Apr 03 $10 $0 +4%
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31? Apr 03 $4 +$1 +12%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 29 $10 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 29 $18 −$2 -12%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 21? Mar 21 $48 +$7 +14%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 19 $28 +$2 +8%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 17 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 14 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 12 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12? Mar 08 $310 +$3 +1%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Mar 08 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Mar 08 $27 +$4 +14%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? Mar 08 $200 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 2m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 16m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 16m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 19m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 20m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 23m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 23m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $76 28m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $77 29m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 34m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 37m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 55m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 56m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $919.11 · official $918.97 (match) · 672 history records