Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
45 0x45d1…83da sports 229 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6,682 (+9%) realized +$6,693 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%119W / 105L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1,105est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,684
7 days−$804
14 days+$5,324
30 days+$7,741
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$6,581
other 3% −$1,027
crypto 1% +$608
politics 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +1.4% -8.3% 45% 45% -12.3%
≤30d 159 +14.5% +3.6% 53% 53% +2.6%
≤90d 208 +11.5% +0.9% 53% 53% -1.6%
all 224 +11.4% +0.8% 53% 53% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 53% -1.7%
10% -8.9% 53% -11.1%
15% -17.7% 53% -19.7%
20% -25.8% 53% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$324 vs −$310 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$1,439
Realized+$6,693
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses119 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,105
Open positions5
Markets (closed)224 / 229
History coverage143d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $400 $385 −$15 (-4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 40¢ $300 $380 +$80 (+27%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 68¢ $300 $368 +$68 (+23%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 35¢ 38¢ $150 $165 +$15 (+10%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 24¢ $300 $141 −$159 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $407 +$482 +119%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $717 −$700 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $407 +$569 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $306 +$484 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 +$196 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $406 −$400 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $308 −$300 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 +$232 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 +$210 +206%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $507 +$454 +90%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $507 +$454 +90%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $409 −$400 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $409 +$971 +238%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 +$385 +126%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$628 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 +$409 +134%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $409 +$882 +216%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $406 +$394 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $218 −$217 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $203 +$175 +86%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $914 +$942 +103%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,020 −$568 -56%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $509 −$462 -91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,015 +$608 +60%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $507 −$500 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $406 −$400 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 14 $507 −$500 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $612 −$600 -98%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $608 +$503 +83%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $508 +$556 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $710 −$700 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $507 −$500 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $609 −$600 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $405 −$400 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 +$136 +134%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $304 −$300 -98%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 13 $306 −$300 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $508 −$500 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $609 +$568 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $153 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $304 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $306 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $407 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $304 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $410 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $407 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $306 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $406 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $407 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $304 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $507 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $507 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $409 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $690 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $305 40h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand $103 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $305 40h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $409 40h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $832 40h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,291 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $203 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $305 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $409 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $33 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $18 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,439.23 · official $1,439.24 (match) · 398 history records