Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x45d0…534e sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$272 (-9%) realized −$309 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$151
14 days−$151
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$438
other 6% +$89
crypto 3% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -55.6% -59.9% 20% 20% -61.4%
≤30d 5 -55.6% -59.9% 20% 20% -61.4%
≤90d 12 -32.8% -39.2% 33% 33% -39.1%
all 28 -19.8% -27.4% 43% 29% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 29% -22.2%
10% -34.3% 29% -29.7%
15% -40.7% 18% -36.5%
20% -46.5% 7% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$59 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$309
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage91d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 90¢ $50 $87 +$37 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $50 +$17 +34%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $51 −$16 -31%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$43 -83%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $91 −$89 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Mar 28 $31 −$8 -27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Mar 23 $754 −$486 -64%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 23 $212 −$15 -7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Mar 23 $150 +$57 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 23 $40 +$40 +100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Mar 23 $300 +$113 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 23 $10 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Mar 23 $50 −$25 -50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 23 $254 −$44 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will New York City FC vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw? Mar 23 $50 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 23 $70 −$61 -87%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Mar 22 $300 +$122 +41%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $50 +$135 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$4 -82%
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs Morningstar (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 22 $120 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 22 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 22 $10 $0 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $100 +$7 +7%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $100 +$30 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 8m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 14¢ $32 14m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 16¢ $2 15m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 21¢ $1 20m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 24m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 28m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $91 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 7¢ $23 85d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 6¢ $1 85d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 8¢ $10 85d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 11¢ $20 85d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 6¢ $21 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 18¢ $33 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 18¢ $3 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 18¢ $2 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 18¢ $17 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 18¢ $9 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 18¢ $1 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou SELL Spirit 14¢ $14 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou BUY Spirit 29¢ $29 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 71¢ $100 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $100 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 89¢ $200 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 90¢ $200 89d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 16¢ $182 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.68 · official $86.97 (match) · 136 history records