Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45cd…a58f sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$12
14 days−$16
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$11
other 19% −$6
crypto 10% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +33.4% +20.7% 47% 41% -15.7%
≤30d 28 +27.8% +15.6% 43% 39% -12.4%
≤90d 31 +19.9% +8.4% 39% 35% -14.2%
all 31 +19.9% +8.4% 39% 35% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.4% 35% -14.2%
10% -1.9% 35% -22.4%
15% -11.4% 35% -29.9%
20% -20.1% 29% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 45
History coverage43d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $94 −$8 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Jun 15 $0 $0 +100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +100%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $0 $0 +100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: South Africa (-1.5) AND Spr Jun 11 $0 $0 +100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Jun 10 $0 $0 -10%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? AN Jun 10 $0 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $56 −$2 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $32 −$1 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $23 −$2 -7%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $52 −$7 -14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 +$8 +165%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $10 +$4 +36%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $11 +$5 +47%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $4 −$1 -27%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $32 −$2 -7%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $47 −$7 -14%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1 +$2 +197%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $7 −$3 -37%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $0 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $0 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $0 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $0 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $0 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $0 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 7h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 50¢ $0 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.86 · official $4.90 (match) · 434 history records