Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45cc…6400
world · 353 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$9,403 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,537 · open −$196
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14,398
Realized−$4,537
Unrealized−$196
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses225 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions38
Markets (closed)317 / 353
History coverage173d
Avg bet$610
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 38 History 317 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days+$858
14 days−$9,721
30 days−$8,807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 64¢ $2,136 $2,137 +$1 (+0%)
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,840 $1,976 +$136 (+7%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 63¢ 64¢ $1,316 $1,319 +$3 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1,261 $1,290 +$29 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,066 $965 −$101 (-9%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 77¢ 90¢ $745 $863 +$118 (+16%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $850 $845 −$5 (-1%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 69¢ 81¢ $704 $829 +$126 (+18%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 36¢ $585 $431 −$154 (-26%)
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 97¢ $300 $371 +$70 (+23%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 88¢ 89¢ $351 $357 +$6 (+2%)
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 79¢ 84¢ $310 $332 +$22 (+7%)
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? No 65¢ 81¢ $256 $320 +$64 (+25%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 80¢ 76¢ $333 $318 −$15 (-5%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 87¢ 87¢ $218 $218 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 53¢ 21¢ $540 $213 −$328 (-61%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 89¢ $194 $203 +$9 (+5%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $159 $169 +$10 (+7%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes 2¢ 2¢ $129 $164 +$35 (+27%)
California voter ID referendum passes? No 72¢ 58¢ $201 $163 −$37 (-18%)
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $134 $141 +$7 (+5%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $153 $138 −$15 (-10%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 21¢ 86¢ $26 $105 +$79 (+308%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $160 $100 −$60 (-38%)
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? No 30¢ 24¢ $98 $79 −$19 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $257 +$89 +34%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $78 +$74 +94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $488 +$93 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $328 +$109 +33%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $87 −$85 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $2,204 +$122 +6%
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $182 +$15 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,499 +$407 +27%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $391 +$40 +10%
Will Robert Menendez Jr. be the Democratic nominee for NJ-08? Jun 07 $276 +$24 +9%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 05 $89 −$86 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $293 +$60 +20%
Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31? Jun 01 $850 +$147 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $4,070 +$416 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $55 −$55 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 31 $3,561 −$689 -19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 31 $1,134 −$789 -70%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 31 $1,663 −$1,341 -81%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 31 $2,472 −$1,482 -60%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $1,275 −$1,275 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 31 $6,657 −$5,460 -82%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $79 +$30 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $4,969 +$1,375 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $1,512 −$1,067 -71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $220 −$182 -82%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $389 +$95 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $867 +$61 +7%
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 28 $480 −$28 -6%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 28 $472 −$78 -16%
Will Chip Roy win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney Gen May 28 $47 +$15 +31%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 25 $380 +$6 +2%
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 18–May 2 May 25 $86 +$4 +5%
Trump weaponization fund blocked by May 31? May 25 $264 +$5 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $2,454 +$484 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $558 +$489 +88%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $1,429 −$21 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $108 +$27 +25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $930 +$152 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 22 $279 +$20 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $972 −$532 -55%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 22 $27 −$28 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 21 $588 +$16 +3%
Will Trump say "Winner" or "Loser" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Trump say "Fighter" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $8 +$12 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% −$5,485
politics 25% −$194
other 21% −$121
crypto 7% +$1,390
finance 2% −$533
tech 1% +$179
sports 0% −$87
culture 0% +$90
economics 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 88¢ $332 41m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 92¢ $32 44m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 92¢ $183 49m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 92¢ $49 53m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 92¢ $11 54m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 88¢ $19 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $320 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $311 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 69¢ $319 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $26 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $280 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 69¢ $345 23h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $3 31h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $1 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $512 31h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 64¢ $458 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $1,207 31h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $2 31h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $3 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $3 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $3 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $3 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $3 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $3 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $6 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $3 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $3 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $3 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $3 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $3 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.1% -5.8% 83% 42% +3.8%
≤30d 54 -14.3% -22.5% 61% 35% -27.6%
≤90d 187 -3.6% -12.8% 68% 44% -17.2%
all 317 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 42% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 42% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 23% -20.2%
15% -24.6% 14% -27.9%
20% -32.0% 9% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,398.47 · official $14,398.64 (match) · 3500 history records