Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
45 0x45c9…2e4a other 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 582d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate27%18W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 75% −$14
politics 15% −$8
other 6% +$3
crypto 2% +$1
sports 2% −$24
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +7.9% -2.4% 11% 5% -6.9%
≤90d 55 +0.9% -8.7% 24% 15% -10.5%
all 66 +0.7% -8.9% 27% 12% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 12% -9.7%
10% -17.6% 12% -18.4%
15% -25.6% 11% -26.3%
20% -32.9% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses18 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage582d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $6 +$9 +152%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $79 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $55 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $130 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $67 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $129 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $66 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $9 +$5 +60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $6 +$11 +172%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $15 +$1 +10%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $10 +$6 +59%
Pelicans vs. Kings Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $8 +$3 +42%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Apr 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Flyers vs. Capitals Apr 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Penguins vs. Islanders Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 2h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 14h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 15h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 43h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 44h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $21 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 9d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 9d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $12 10d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $12 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 11d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 11d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $6 11d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 17d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 17d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.98 · official $51.98 (match) · 238 history records