Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
45 0x45c6…0123 sports 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 498d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,305 (-10%) realized −$1,305 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$254
7 days+$1,086
14 days+$765
30 days+$1,314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$480
world 30% −$663
other 6% −$98
crypto 1% −$65
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +14.7% +3.8% 56% 50% +4.7%
≤30d 29 +14.1% +3.2% 48% 45% +3.6%
≤90d 41 +1.2% -8.4% 46% 39% -8.9%
all 45 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 36% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 36% -12.2%
10% -20.3% 29% -20.6%
15% -28.0% 22% -28.3%
20% -35.1% 20% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$168 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

498d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage498d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $556 +$734 +132%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $561 −$5 -1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $431 +$124 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $296 +$125 +42%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $259 +$249 +96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $537 +$15 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $508 −$502 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $473 −$465 -98%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $670 −$21 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $255 −$251 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $600 +$154 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $600 +$604 +101%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $290 +$311 +107%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $300 −$10 -3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $300 −$295 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $297 +$319 +107%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $243 −$241 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$43 +21%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $175 +$25 +14%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $149 −$148 -99%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 03 $124 +$220 +177%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $181 −$65 -36%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 03 $153 −$57 -37%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $98 −$5 -5%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? May 31 $98 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $90 −$6 -6%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? May 27 $250 −$157 -63%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $204 +$223 +109%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 21 $200 +$396 +198%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $198 −$198 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $199 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 13 $357 +$31 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 08 $8 $0 -2%
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? Apr 08 $6 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $112 −$112 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $144 +$74 +52%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Apr 06 $1,348 −$833 -62%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28? Apr 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? Apr 06 $90 +$22 +25%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Jan 13 $515 −$347 -67%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14? Jan 09 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Nov 04 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Feb 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $39 26m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $650 28m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 90¢ $600 46m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $556 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 34¢ $556 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $561 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $555 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $431 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $420 5h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $508 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $296 7h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $259 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 29¢ $552 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $537 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $508 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 34¢ $195 33h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $277 34h
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $473 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $103 4d
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $500 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $152 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 83¢ $754 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $600 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $1,204 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $600 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $600 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 47¢ $290 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 43¢ $290 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $300 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $300 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 205 history records