Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:55:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x45c5…335e crypto 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+0%) realized +$121 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%153W / 16L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$9
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$89
sports 1% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 83% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.1% 92% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 33 -4.9% -14.0% 88% 3% -9.3%
all 169 -0.6% -10.0% 91% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.47 per $1 lost it wins $5.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses153 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage280d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $295 $294 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $294 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $292 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $291 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? Jun 25 $289 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $289 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 23 $291 −$3 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $288 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $287 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 10 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $284 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $281 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 31 $279 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $279 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 28 $276 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $276 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $275 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 10 $273 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 06 $274 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $272 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $271 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $271 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $270 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7PM ET Apr 15 $8 −$8 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $278 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $277 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $276 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $276 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 31 $274 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 31 $273 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $272 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $272 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $271 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $270 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $270 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $268 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $267 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? Mar 15 $266 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $265 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $265 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $264 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $264 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $263 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $263 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $263 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $262 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $262 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $295 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $296 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $145 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $140 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $9 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $293 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $133 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $138 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $292 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $291 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $289 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $290 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $289 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $288 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $291 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $288 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $287 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $286 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $285 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $285 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $284 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $281 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $279 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? SELL No 100¢ $280 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $279 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $278 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $276 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $276 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.41 · official $294.26 (match) · 374 history records